Natalia Gutiérrez, president of the Colombian Association of Electric Power Generators (Acolgén) and the National Business Council, has been warning for more than four years about the risks Colombia would face if investments in generation are not accelerated, projects are not unblocked, and problems in environmental licensing, prior consultations, and works in La Guajira are not addressed.
Now, the country is preparing to face a new El Niño phenomenon in a scenario that, according to Gutiérrez, already shows a deficit of firm energy. Added to this is a debt of 2.5 trillion pesos with the thermal plants, whose operation will be fundamental during a reduction in water contributions.
In an interview with EL TIEMPO, the trade leader explains the risks for the electrical system, what measures she considers necessary to avoid rationing, what could happen with energy prices, and why, beyond this climatic phenomenon, Colombia needs to make long-term decisions to increase its generation capacity.
Have you warned about what could happen to the electrical system without investments and recommendations? What is the real situation today?
I have been studying and warning for more than four years, with public figures and from the market operator, XM, that by 2026 and 2027 we could be in negative margins of firm energy. This means that demand would be much higher than the energy supply.
If we did not make the investments, if public policy signals were not given to move projects forward, if we did not resolve environmental licenses, prior consultations, and projects in La Guajira, we could reach this situation. What we have today is really the result of what we warned about four years ago. Today we are in a deficit of firm energy.
We are also entering an El Niño phenomenon whose strength and duration we do not yet know. To make it clear to everyone, Colombia operates with a hydrothermal system. We have most of the year, when it rains, hydroelectric generation, and when there is drought, hydroelectric generation decreases and thermal generation comes in to support.
What happens when we say that today we are in negative margins?
That for a drought period like the one coming, the amount of hydroelectric power we have, plus the amount of thermal power, are already at insufficient levels to meet demand.
This government found an energy sector under stress, with several problems that have been generated over the past four years and that we have been warning about. Investments were not made, but additionally the thermal plants have not been paid a debt of 2.5 trillion pesos to be able to buy gas and coal.
The government of President Abelardo De La Espriella and his Minister María Nohemí Arboleda have done a brave job. They committed to making a payment to the thermal plants and announced an energy-saving measure.
It has been quite controversial in the Caribbean region, but from the guilds we have requested it since the beginning of this year because we need to save water and for reservoirs to be depleted much more slowly so that we reach December above 80 percent.
What do we have to face at least from now until the first quarter of next year?
Minister María Nohemí Arboleda said it in recent days: we are in a very delicate situation. The Government cannot assure at this moment that we have no risk of shortages. The truth is that it is calling for everyone to help.
From September to December there is little left to do because more generation plants will not come online. We must have impeccable logistics for liquid fuels and gas, as well as gas availability for thermal plants. We must also have public order security. There can be no blockades or any type of attack.
We had a problem with an EPM solar plant: due to illegal mining there was a fire and we almost lost an 80-megawatt plant. Things like that cannot happen during the El Niño phenomenon. We must protect all infrastructure: lines, generation plants, and substations, because the margin for maneuver is very short.
But there is no gas either. Are we in an even more complicated scenario?
The Ministry of Mines and Energy is looking at how to have more gas availability in December with a project being advanced in Cartagena. Additionally, the expansion of the Spec regasification plant was authorized, which in theory should also give us an additional cushion. The Ministry has to monitor this every day and I believe they are doing so.
What could happen with tariffs?
A large part of the energy is contracted long-term; only between 20 and 30 percent is traded on the stock exchange. Since we need to turn on the thermal plants, the stock exchange price will definitely be higher than if we generate with water, which is much cheaper.
So, stock exchange prices will rise. We do not know by how much. The minister is trying to take measures to cap those prices, obviously under instructions from President Abelardo De La Espriella.
We are reviewing the mechanisms being imposed on us, which are clearly outside the market, but we understand the situation and are trying to review them with the Ministry. What the minister is saying is that when we have to generate with gas thermal plants and imported gas, prices become more expensive.
Could this scenario have been avoided or reduced if the measures you pointed out had been adopted?
Of course. The responsibility of the guilds was to warn about it. Several guilds did it; we even made a call from the National Business Council this year.
People do not understand that we are not talking about plants, reservoirs, or lines: we are talking about a country coming to a halt.
We could not be having this conference you and I if we did not have energy. Bank transactions cannot be made, virtual classes cannot be given, there is no artificial intelligence, and there are no data centers. A country comes to a halt.
Today, a blackout is not the same as 30 years ago: it can cost the productive sector 1.7 points of GDP, in a country growing at 2.5 percent. What we have left is to support the Government and join the energy-saving campaign.
Are we headed for a blackout?
No. No one knows that because we do not know how the climate will behave. And if we do not know how the climate will behave, no one is in a position to affirm that.
What the Government is doing right now is, according to system predictions, taking all necessary measures so that we do not have energy shortages.
The Government announced a bill to try to bring more than one trillion pesos to the sector. Is it enough for you?
That initiative was announced by the Minister of Finance, Miguel Gómez. We do not have the details of the initiative. We were told it was separate from the budget project, but we are waiting to know its content to be able to contribute.
What emergency measures are you adopting as a guild so that this situation does not hit us so hard?
From the companies we are ensuring that the generation park operates at full capacity. There is even very good news: EPM was allowed to raise its reservoir level to be able to store a little more energy for the drought period.
The thing is that flows are already extremely low today, reservoirs are not recovering, and I think the emergency measure we have, and I reiterate, is to call for saving water and energy. That is the main call to which we are all committed.
What is next for the sector facing the new government? What are the goals and decisions that could prevent emergencies in the future?
That is very important because people think: “We overcome the El Niño phenomenon and solve the problem.” No. In its forecasts, XM is showing us that we are in negative scenarios of firm energy this year and the next four years.
So, we would no longer worry about each El Niño phenomenon, which occurs every three or four years, but we would be worried about every summer, that is, every December.
The task for this government is extremely challenging and I think the minister knows it perfectly because, moreover, she is an expert in the sector. Calls are already being made by the National Government to review the possibility of urgent auctions, look at the battery issue, and unblock projects as quickly as possible.
We need a technologically neutral auction. What does that mean? Solar and wind are welcome, but we need to encourage the entry of thermal plants and we need to encourage again the entry of hydro plants.
These are billion-dollar and long-term investments. We need to be able to provide conditions not only for four years; we have to provide peace of mind for six, seven, eight, or fifteen years. There are hydroelectric plants that take between seven and ten years to build.
We, from the Business Council, will lead a bill on legal stability not only for energy projects but also for gas, oil, and infrastructure projects, which are long-term and exceed one government. We will try to get this initiative out.
Obviously, we have discussed it with the Senate president and with several congressmen. For this type of projects, not only energy ones but all major infrastructure projects in this country, there must be long-term rules of the game that provide peace of mind to make billion-dollar investments again in Colombia.
Does buying gas from Venezuela sound like an immediate solution?
The issue is not whether it is in Venezuela. The problem we have right now is that there are no facilities to bring the gas. If we could import gas and the gas pipeline with Venezuela were functional, buying gas from Venezuela would be welcome. Only that today we have a regasification plant in Cartagena, which is Spec, which allows us to bring imported gas. Otherwise, we have no way to bring more gas.
A blackout today is not the same as a blackout 30 years ago. Would it be worse?
Absolutely worse. Today the country, the whole world, and all its productive activities are permeated by electricity. Without electricity there is no economic growth. And this without talking about the damages that can happen in our homes due to the cold chain of food, in education, and in hospitals.
Besides disrupting our way of life, the country comes to a halt. That is too costly for a country growing at 2.5 percent and whose goal this year hopefully is 4 percent.
Added to additional factors such as high inflation, exaggerated revaluation, high interest rates, and an El Niño phenomenon that affects not only the electrical sector but also food, this puts us in check as a country.
I think we all have to contribute from the corner where we are. Each of us in our homes can help. Every kilowatt counts, please. We have to support the Government. This is not a punishment; they are protecting us from a possibility of shortage for next summer, which starts in December and ends in April or May, according to statistics, but we do not know how long or how strong it can be.