The natural gas supply in Colombia is undergoing an accelerated structural deterioration. This was warned by María Claudia Alzate, director of the Natural Gas Market Operator, when presenting a sector report that shows the loss of almost 300 GBTUD, a volume that has had to be progressively replaced with imported gas.
According to figures from the Market Operator, production declarations peaked in 2022 with 1,190 GBTUD. However, from 2023 onwards, the decline in supply deepened, reaching 808 GBTUD in 2026.
As explained by the director of the Market Operator, this 32.1 percent drop in four years is due to the natural decline of the fields and that “many fields have started to have problems and more and more fields are experiencing serious problems”.
“Nearly 300 GBTUD have been lost that were put on the market and today are being replaced by imported gas”, stated María Claudia Alzate during her participation in the Gas Forum 2026.
Additionally, she emphasized that, on average, only 86 percent of the gas that agents declare as available actually ends up being effectively delivered to the market for commercialization.
The industry has run out of firm gas
The decline in available supply is concentrated in large-scale fields such as Cusiana and Cupiagua (located in Casanare), as well as Chuchupa and Ballena (in La Guajira), in addition to the impact from operational difficulties of Canacol Energy in its fields.
This lower molecule availability has critically restricted the supply of long-term contracts for industrial customers.
“There is almost no firm gas being put on the market, and the little that is put first serves the essential demand. The industry does not have gas under those conditions and that is significantly affecting it”, affirmed María Claudia Alzate.
Due to the lack of reliability and security in the national supply, various industrial sectors have opted to replace gas with energy sources with a higher carbon footprint. “What gas is available to buy today does not give them any certainty in their production, so they have preferred to abandon it”, she added.
The outlook will be worse in 10 years
Market Operator projections anticipate that the rate of decline will intensify towards the end of 2036. “In 10 years, practically, we will no longer have more than 250 GBTUD of national gas if we continue as we are”, warned Alzate.
This volume represents more than 30 percent of the current production declarations (808 GBTUD). In this tight context, fields like Sinú-9 and Istanbul take on a strategic role to provide additional quantities of gas in the coming months.
In Sinú-9, for example, the Mágico well is undergoing extensive testing and is expected to begin commercial operation in October 2027, adding 15 GBTUD of firm gas to the system.
Impact on prices: the cost of relying on imports
According to the director of the Market Operator, the lower availability of national natural gas and the need to turn to the international market is already resulting in a strong impact on market tariffs.
While seven years ago national gas contracts in the primary market averaged 6.36 dollars per million BTU, for the first half of 2026 that cost rose to 10.93 dollars.
The pressure is even greater when resorting to imported gas, whose price is around 15.76 dollars per million BTU, showing the extra cost involved in covering the deficit with external purchases.