Pension window comes to an end, more than one million could change regime, but only a part did

For the first time in more than two decades, over a million Colombians once again had the possibility to choose between the public and private pension systems when, according to the traditional rules of the pension system, that decision was almost irreversible. Two years later, that chapter comes to an end.

This July 16 marks the deadline of the so-called window of opportunity, the exceptional mechanism created by Article 76 of Law 2381 of 2024 to allow that regime change for those close to retirement. The closing leaves a still preliminary balance, as the final figures will only be known once the period ends, but the available data shows that, although more than a million affiliates met the conditions to take advantage of the benefit, only a portion ultimately decided to use it.

At the same time, the process leaves open fundamental decisions about the transfer of resources associated with these changes and the future of the pension reform itself.

The transfer opportunity was an exception within the Colombian pension system. Under the rules of Law 100, those less than ten years from reaching retirement age could no longer change regimes.

However, Article 76 of Law 2381 of 2024 opened, for a single time and for two years, that possibility for women with at least 750 weeks contributed and men with 900 weeks, provided they first received mandatory dual counseling to compare which regime offered better conditions.

The most recent figures from Asofondos, the association of AFP Porvenir, Protección, Colfondos, and Skandia, show that, as of June 15, more than 272,000 dual counseling requests had been registered, a mandatory requirement to make an informed decision, and 153,392 transfers between Colpensiones and the private administrators or vice versa had been completed.

According to available information, around nine out of ten changes were from private funds to Colpensiones up to that date.

Colpensiones statistics, as of May 31, allow gauging the scope of the process. The entity estimated that 1,033,019 affiliates could take advantage of the transfer opportunity, of which 265,626 had requested dual counseling by that time.

Of that total, 149,745 transfer requests were filed, 148,609 were approved, and 719 rejected, while others remained in process or validation.

The figures also show that not everyone who received dual counseling ended up changing regimes. In many cases, the exercise confirmed that staying with their original administrator was the most convenient option, a result that is also part of the mechanism’s objective, that is, that the decision be made with sufficient information and not just based on expectation or perception.

According to Asofondos analysis, eight out of ten workers benefit from being in a private fund, since there they can retire with fewer weeks (1,150) or receive a better refund of their money if they do not meet the requirements for a pension —the average real historical return of private pension funds in Colombia is around 8 percent effective annual rate—.

The data also shows that thousands of affiliates used the dual counseling but ultimately decided to remain in the regime where they already were. In other words, the mechanism not only produced changes between Colpensiones and the AFPs but also confirmed decisions.

Dual counseling was designed so that workers would know the estimated value of their future pension, the required weeks, and the implications of each regime before making a decision that, in most cases, will be final.

But the closing of the window leaves an issue still far from being resolved. While regime changes have been formalized for those who met the requirements, the debate now focuses on the resources backing those future pensions that remain under AFP administration, even though the affiliates are already part of the regime managed by Colpensiones.

As recalled, in April, the Government issued Decree 415 of 2026, ordering the transfer to Colpensiones of the resources accumulated by those who used the transfer opportunity, considering that this entity had already assumed the pension risk of those affiliates and that keeping the resources in the AFPs generated a financial imbalance.

Asofondos, on the other hand, argues that Article 76 of Law 2381 established that those resources must remain in the private administrators until the affiliates consolidate their pension rights and has warned that the decree disregards that legal mandate. According to the association, the controversy involves resources close to 25 trillion pesos, whose situation remains pending a decision by the Council of State.

Thus, the expiration of the window of opportunity marks the end of the first major exercise in applying the pension reform, even before a definitive ruling on its constitutionality exists.

In the coming days, consolidated figures will be known on how many affiliates ultimately took advantage of the mechanism, but the most impactful decisions are still pending, as the Council of State must resolve the future of the resources associated with those transfers and the Constitutional Court must decide whether the new pension system fully comes into effect.